FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) is a model for multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure. FUTURES produces regional projections of landscape patterns using coupled submodels that integrate nonstationary drivers of land change.
Submodels
- Potential: site suitability
- Demand: per capita demand
- Patch Growing Algorithm (PGA): the spatial structure of conversion events
Potential Submodel Variables
| Development Pressure |
Predictors |
| Urban change |
Protected areas |
| |
Roads |
| |
Water |
| |
Forest |
| |
City center |
Demand Submodel Variables
| Demand |
| Population statistics |
Research Questions
- Where is growth happening?
- How should we rethink development?
Scenario Variables
| Incentives |
Predictors |
Weight |
| Normal |
Wellbeing index |
Digitized development zones |
| Sprawl |
Landcover scenario |
Digitized conservation zones |
| Infill |
Flood zones |
|
Scenario Evaluation
A matrix comparing hydrological and landcover change (LCC) scenarios.
CC: Hydrological events with a climate change multiplier.
| Hydrological Event |
LCC Incentives |
LCC Predictors |
| 25 yr storm |
Normal |
|
| 50 yr storm |
Normal |
|
| 100 yr storm |
Normal |
|
| 500 yr storm |
Normal |
|
| 25 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
| 50 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
| 100 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
| 500 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
| 25 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
| 50 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
| 100 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
| 500 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
| 25 yr storm |
Infill |
|
| 50 yr storm |
Infill |
|
| 100 yr storm |
Infill |
|
| 500 yr storm |
Infill |
|
| … |
… |
… |
Resources