FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) is a model for multilevel simulations of emerging urban-rural landscape structure. FUTURES produces regional projections of landscape patterns using coupled submodels that integrate nonstationary drivers of land change.
Submodels
- Potential: site suitability
- Demand: per capita demand
- Patch Growing Algorithm (PGA): the spatial structure of conversion events
Potential Submodel Variables
Development Pressure |
Predictors |
Urban change |
Protected areas |
|
Roads |
|
Water |
|
Forest |
|
City center |
Demand Submodel Variables
Demand |
Population statistics |
Research Questions
- Where is growth happening?
- How should we rethink development?
Scenario Variables
Incentives |
Predictors |
Weight |
Normal |
Wellbeing index |
Digitized development zones |
Sprawl |
Landcover scenario |
Digitized conservation zones |
Infill |
Flood zones |
|
Scenario Evaluation
A matrix comparing hydrological and landcover change (LCC) scenarios.
CC: Hydrological events with a climate change multiplier.
Hydrological Event |
LCC Incentives |
LCC Predictors |
25 yr storm |
Normal |
|
50 yr storm |
Normal |
|
100 yr storm |
Normal |
|
500 yr storm |
Normal |
|
25 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
50 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
100 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
500 yr storm x CC |
Normal |
|
25 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
50 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
100 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
500 yr storm |
Normal |
Social vulnerability |
25 yr storm |
Infill |
|
50 yr storm |
Infill |
|
100 yr storm |
Infill |
|
500 yr storm |
Infill |
|
… |
… |
… |
Resources